Autori
Fioravanti, Federico
Tohme, Fernando
Delbianco, Fernando

Titolo
The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership
Periodico
Statistical methods & applications : Journal of the Italian Statistical Society
Anno: 2023 - Volume: 32 - Fascicolo: 3 - Pagina iniziale: 715 - Pagina finale: 731

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.



SICI: 1618-2510(2023)32:3<715:TRIOAL>2.0.ZU;2-P

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