Autori
Österholm, Pär
Beechey, Meredith

Titolo
Central Bank Forecasts of Policy Interest Rates: An Evaluation of the First Years
Periodico
Economic notes
Anno: 2014 - Volume: 43 - Fascicolo: 1 - Pagina iniziale: 63 - Pagina finale: 78

In recent years, the central banks of Norway and Sweden have published their endogenous policy interest-rate forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate those forecasts alongside policy-rate expectations inferred from market pricing. We find that for both economies, there are only small differences in relative forecasting precision between the central bank and market-implied measures. However, both types of forecast fail tests for unbiasedness and efficiency at longer horizons.



SICI: 0391-5026(2014)43:1<63:CBFOPI>2.0.ZU;2-5

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