Autori
Conforti, Piero
Prakash, Adam
Sarris, Alexander

Titolo
L'uso dei future e delle opzioni per assicurare i rischi di prezzo delle importazioni di grano dei paesi a basso reddito deficitari di alimenti
Periodico
Economia & diritto agroalimentare
Anno: 2005 - Volume: 10 - Fascicolo: 1 - Pagina iniziale: 20 - Pagina finale: 61

The paper considers the problem of insuring the price risks of wheat imports of low income food deficit countries (LIFDCs), as a way to insure one part of their external commodity risks, and a contribution to their sustainable development. Econometric analysis of wheat import unit values of LIFCDs suggests that they are closely related to international wheat export reference prices. These in turn are closely related to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures prices, suggesting that CBOT is a good hedging market for all wheat importing countries. Simulations for a set of LIFDCs that account for a large share of the LIFDC wheat imports are conducted for the periods 1995-2002 and 1986-2002 with actual CBOT futures nd options data to explore the feasibility of hedging monthly wheat imports of LIFDCs. It is shown that rules based on futures as well as options provide considerable opportunities for hedging. It is also shown that pooling the price risks of all countries together provides superior hedging opportunity. This suggests that multilateral arrangements to hedge LIFDC cereal import price risks maybe viable, and maybe a crucial contributor to overall sustainable development strategies.



SICI: 1970-9498(2005)10:1<20:LDFEDO>2.0.ZU;2-C
Testo completo: http://www.fupress.net/index.php/eda/article/download/1146/1091

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