Autore
Mizon, Grayham E.

Titolo
Progressive modelling of macroeconomic time series: the LSE methodology
Periodico
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1995 - Fascicolo: 10 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 74

A brief history of the development of the LSE econometric modelling methodology is presented. The essence of the methodology is the recognition that potentially valuable information for the analysis of any economic problem can come from numerous sources including, economic theory, the available sample of observations on the hypothetically relevant variables, knowledge of the economic history of the period under study, and from knowledge of the way in which the observed data axe defined and measured, plus their relationship to the theory variables. The principal features of the methodology (especially congruence and encompassing for model evaluation, and general-to-specific as a modelling strategy) are then described, and their roles illustrated in the development of a simple model of the time series relationship between wages, prices, and unemployment in the UK between 1965 and 1993, from both a single equation and system perspective. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to system analysis, and that there is a structural change which may reflect a change in economic policy.



Testo completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/535

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